ICI3D

The challenge

Mathematical modelling has become a valuable tool for those planning health services, particularly programmes relating to infectious diseases. Modelling has multiple uses, for example, to forecast likely future trends in infectious diseases and to evaluate the potential impact of interventions – analyses that can inform prioritisation, resource allocation, and other aspects of programmatic decision-making.

Realising the potential of infectious disease modelling requires both skilled researchers able to span the fields of mathematical modelling and infectious diseases, as well as policymakers with a solid grasp of the potential application of modelling techniques in their areas of responsibility. Currently, there is limited experience of infectious disease modelling within sub-Saharan Africa and limited practical application to enhance public health.

The project

The training programme of ICI3D is strengthening regional capacity for infectious disease modelling by building on the foundation laid by the existing International Clinics on Infectious Disease Dynamics and Data. Since their launch in 2009, these clinics have trained more than 750 professionals and researchers.

The training model will be adapted to support the development of a regional training hub in infectious disease modelling. This project will deliver two updated annual clinics, strengthen the alumni network, and launch a Modelling Clinic Accelerator to replicate the ICI3D model across the region. Two annual clinics will be offered:

• Meaningful Modelling of Epidemiological Data (MMED): A two-week in-person training course in Cape Town, South Africa, tailored to quantitative researchers and focusing on data-driven infectious disease modelling.
• Dynamical Approaches to Infectious Disease Data (DAIDD): A one-week in-person training course in Nairobi, Kenya, tailored to public health professionals and researchers with limited prior mathematical expertise, to introduce dynamic modelling approaches. 

The team is working with European partners to embed health economic methodologies into each course. Courses will include modular lectures, interactive coding demonstrations, and computer practices, with materials developed under FAIR and open-source principles and continuously refined to align with current public health priorities across the region. The objective is to train at least 50 participants a year, with around 10 coming from ministries of health or national public health institutes.

The project also aims to build a peer network of modelling experts. In the ICI3D model, alumni contribute to future teaching – half of the ICI3D faculty are alumni who have taken on mentoring, teaching and leadership roles. Members of this network will also be able to continue developing their professional skills through an online alumni forum offering continuing education webinars, career development opportunities, and collaborative research initiatives.

A third objective is to spin out new training sites that replicate the ICI3D training model. A ‘modelling clinic accelerator’ programme will use a train-the-trainer model and leverage ICI3D faculty expertise in developing online, open-source curricula to establish two additional clinics in the region.

Impact

The ICI3D project will significantly expand infectious disease modelling capacity in sub-Saharan Africa and promote its application to address public health challenges. It will:

• Increase the number of researchers with up-to-date skills in infectious disease modelling.
• Provide continuing professional development opportunities for modelling specialists.
• Create a self-sustaining ecosystem to maintain the supply of infectious disease modelling experts.
• Encourage greater use of modelling and health economic analyses within national health systems. 

Collectively, these activities will boost the use of infectious disease modelling in sub-Saharan Africa, enhancing countries’ ability to respond to and prevent key infectious disease threats.