TIMERA

The challenge

Sub-Saharan Africa faces a high and growing burden of infectious diseases, yet its capacity to anticipate and respond to outbreaks remains uneven. A key challenge is the limited local expertise in infectious disease modelling, with most capacity concentrated in the Global North. Weak surveillance systems, shortages of skilled professionals, and limited data infrastructure further restrict the use of modelling for timely, evidence-based decision-making. As a result, responses to outbreaks often rely on external support that may not fully reflect local contexts. Strengthening Africa-led modelling capacity is therefore essential to enable faster, more accurate, and context-specific responses to future epidemics and pandemics.

Mathematical modelling is a tool of growing importance in infectious disease control. When it comes to outbreaks, it can be used to enhance preparedness by identifying high-risk areas where surveillance and prevention efforts need to be focused. It can also be used to provide insights into the likely evolution of outbreaks and potential impacts of interventions, to guide public health response strategies.

The project

The TIMERA project is strengthening mathematical and statistical modelling capacity in sub-Saharan Africa to improve the detection of infectious disease threats, generate insights into potential outbreak dynamics, and underpin evidence-based decision-making. It aims to strengthen national and continental modelling capacity by working in collaboration with national public health institutes, ministries of health, and leading academic institutions.

The project is organising short-term, combined training programmes for early- to mid-career researchers and public health professionals with a strong commitment to apply modelling approaches in infectious disease control. In total, it will train 50 African fellows, adding significantly to the regional epidemiological workforce. 

Training will be delivered through a combination of in-person and online learning. Trainees will participate in two intensive, two-week face-to-face blocks, complemented by online modules, thematic workshops, and supervised internships, and will benefit from continuous specialised mentoring. Trainees will be paired with experienced experts, receiving personalised guidance throughout the course, with separate mentors for modelling and infectious disease components of the training. In addition, fellows will undertake applied projects, ensuring that they acquire both core technical competencies in infectious disease modelling, including exposure to AI-supported approaches, as well as the ability to apply their expertise to real-world challenges.

Where feasible, fellows will also undertake short internships at their home institution, a national public health institute, or a ministry of health, anchoring their learning in real-world contexts. The project places a strong emphasis on policy translation, equipping participants not only with technical modelling skills but also with the ability to communicate findings effectively to policymakers.

The programme also has a strong focus on group work, with fellows working together for three months after their final face-to-face training module to develop outputs in formats suitable for communication to policymakers.

In addition, the Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme (FELTP), run by the project scientific leader at Addis Ababa University, will serve as a platform for mentoring and supporting the fellows’ post-graduation. This will help to establish a regional, Africa-led alumni network in epidemiological modelling that will sustain and amplify the programme’s long-term impact.

Impact

The TIMERA project will build capacity in Africa for outbreak preparedness and response. It will:

• Train 50 public health professionals from sub-Saharan Africa in the latest infectious disease modelling techniques, including the use of AI/machine learning tools.
• Ensure that training is both theoretically rigorous and rooted in the need to address real-world public health challenges.
• Provide opportunities for continuing professional development and peer exchange to maintain and strengthen regional technical capabilities.

The TIMERA project will significantly strengthen regional capabilities to use infectious disease modelling to anticipate and respond to outbreaks, enhancing preparedness and response and ultimately reducing the impact of emerging and re-emerging infections.